Published on 01.07.2021 10:02

The Euro has started of Thursday’s trading session on the wrong foot after key data out of Germany failed to live up to expectations which have given traders a reason to ditch the currency. 

 German Retail Sales figures hit the market at 4.2% against analysts’ expectations for a figure 5.0% but on a positive, were well up from the previous months’ numbers of -5.5%. On a YOY basis, the figures came in at -2.4%, down from the 4.4% seen in April and well below the 10.1% expected by analysts. 

The European currency had been under pressure since yesterday after ADP employment change figures from the US were released to the market at 692k which was well above consensus for a figure of 600k and history shows that if these figures are good, they are usually followed by strong Non-farm payrolls numbers which are due out tomorrow.

This release is shaping up to be make or break news for the Euro against the US dollar over the next month as the Fed are likely to make moves to reduce the monetary stimulus for the US economy if the Jobs market keeps improving which may include higher interest rates.

The disappointing figures out of Germany this morning has caused the Euro to break down through the critical support level of $1.1856 which is bad new as it was hoped that this support line would hold as we head into the NFP release tomorrow.

It has now turned into a resistance point, and we may see the Euro pull back further before finding some support at the next level of $1.1815 which should hold at least until the NFP figures are released.

A knee jerk reaction is expected from the market if the NFP figures come in strong as expected, and a test of the next support level at $1.1760 is likely to occur.